Will The Smashing Machine Score a Best Picture Nom at the Oscars?
Will The Smashing Machine Score a Best Picture Nom at the Oscars?
The 2026 Academy Awards may seem distant, but The Smashing Machine is already being positioned as a formidable contender in multiple categories, including the coveted Best Picture race. Starring Dwayne Johnson in a dramatic turn as mixed martial arts champion Mark Kerr, the film is being praised for its prestige elements and transformative lead performance. As the industry looks ahead, BEO Betting Odds reflect a strong belief that the film has what it takes to earn a nomination.
BEO Betting Odds Signal Strong Chance for a Nomination
According to the latest data from BEO Betting Odds, the probability of The Smashing Machine securing a Best Picture nomination stands at a commanding 73.53%. The odds are currently set at 1.36, indicating that bookmakers view the film as a very likely candidate to make the final list. This high probability is fueled by a combination of factors, including its release by the Oscar-winning studio A24, the direction of Benny Safdie, and a compelling true story centered on an athlete’s battle with addiction and fame. These elements create a powerful narrative that often resonates with Academy voters, making the film a prominent fixture in early awards season predictions.
Runner-Up: A “No” Vote Remains the Alternative
While the odds are heavily in favor of a nomination, the runner-up betting option is simply that the film will not receive a Best Picture nod. For those skeptical of the film’s ability to break through a competitive field, or who believe the buzz may fade as other contenders emerge during the fall festival season, this remains the alternative wager. However, given the current momentum and statistical projections, a “no” vote is considered the less probable outcome.
Expert Predictions Align with Favorable Odds
Industry experts and awards pundits are largely in agreement that The Smashing Machine is a serious awards contender. Much of the initial conversation has focused on Dwayne Johnson’s dramatic and physical transformation to play Mark Kerr, a role that required extensive prosthetic makeup and a departure from his action-hero persona. This type of transformative performance is often a magnet for Oscar attention, not just for the actor but for the film itself. Pundits note that the combination of a beloved, bankable star taking on a gritty, complex role in a biopic directed by an acclaimed filmmaker like Benny Safdie is a proven recipe for Oscar success.
Final Thoughts: A Nomination in its Future?
While nothing is certain until the nominations are announced, all signs currently point toward The Smashing Machine being a major force in the 2026 Oscar race. The combination of strong betting odds, favorable expert predictions, and a compelling narrative both on-screen and off makes it one of the most talked-about films of the upcoming season. With a prestige studio, a respected director, and a global superstar stepping into a career-defining role, the film has all the necessary ingredients for a successful awards campaign. Barring a significant shift in critical reception upon its release, it appears very likely that The Smashing Machine will indeed smash its way into the Best Picture lineup.
