Oscars Nominations 2026 – Best Supporting Actress
Oscars Nominations 2026 – Best Supporting Actress
As the film industry begins to look toward the 98th Academy Awards, the contest for Best Supporting Actress is already showing signs of a compelling race. Initial betting odds from goldderby.com suggest a strong frontrunner has emerged, thanks to a standout role in a much-anticipated fantasy sequel. While one performance currently holds a commanding lead, the field of potential nominees includes a mix of established veterans and rising stars, promising a dynamic awards season.
Goldderby.com Points to Ariana Grande as the Frontrunner
The numbers from goldderby.com indicate a strong lead for Ariana Grande, who is poised to capture the Best Supporting Actress award for her role in Wicked: For Good. The odds are 1.5 and a commanding 66.81% probability of winning. Grande’s portrayal of Glinda has been a topic of discussion since the first film’s release, with many anticipating that the sequel will offer even more depth for her character. After receiving nominations for the first Wicked film at major awards shows like the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and SAG Awards, the momentum appears to be carrying over, positioning her as the one to beat.
For a full breakdown of the odds, visit goldderby.com.
Runner-Up: Elle Fanning Closing the Gap
While Grande holds a significant lead, Elle Fanning remains a formidable contender for her work in Sentimental Value. As the runner-up betting option on goldderby.com, Fanning’s performance in the Joachim Trier-directed family drama has been highly praised, particularly after its warm reception at Cannes. The film, which also stars Renate Reinsve and Stellan Skarsgård, is considered a serious awards contender across multiple categories. Fanning portrays an American movie star and has garnered significant praise, making her a strong challenger in the supporting actress category.
The Dark Horse: Gwyneth Paltrow in Marty Supreme
An intriguing name emerging as a dark horse is Academy Award winner Gwyneth Paltrow for her role in Marty Supreme. The film, directed by Josh Safdie and starring Timothée Chalamet, is a fictionalized story inspired by the life of ping-pong champion Marty Reisman. Paltrow plays a Hollywood movie star and love interest, marking a significant return to the screen for the actress. While not a frontrunner, her role in the A24 production, set for a Christmas Day release, could gain momentum and present a late-stage challenge.
Big Payoff Perspective: Could Ayo Edebiri Pull Off an Upset?
For those looking for a high-risk, high-reward scenario, Ayo Edebiri’s performance in Ella McCay presents an interesting option. With a low probability of just 0.17%, a win for Edebiri would be a major upset but could result in a significant payoff. Edebiri, who has gained acclaim for her role in The Bear, is part of an ensemble cast that includes Jamie Lee Curtis and Woody Harrelson in the James L. Brooks-directed comedy-drama. While a long shot, her rising star power makes her a contender to watch.
Expert Predictions Hint at Other Possibilities
Notably, expert predictions are not entirely aligned with the betting odds. While some agree with goldderby.com’s assessment of Grande as the favorite, others are looking at different performers who could make a splash. Emily Blunt’s role as Dawn Staples in the A24 MMA biopic The Smashing Machine has been highlighted as a potential contender. The film, directed by Benny Safdie and co-starring Dwayne Johnson, sees Blunt in a dramatic role as the wife of MMA champion Mark Kerr. The buzz around Blunt’s performance suggests she is firmly in the conversation.
Final Thoughts: Grande to Win?
While the race is still in its early stages, the odds from goldderby.com suggest a strong trend towards Ariana Grande as the most probable winner. However, with strong competition from Elle Fanning, a potential dark horse in Gwyneth Paltrow, and other acclaimed actresses like Emily Blunt and Ayo Edebiri in the mix, the Best Supporting Actress category remains an exciting and unpredictable race to watch as the 2026 Oscars approach.
