Triple J Hottest 100 (2025): Which Ben Lee Song Will Be Rated Higher?
Triple J Hottest 100 (2025): Which Ben Lee Song Will Be Rated Higher?
Two songs, two distinct eras, one artist. Ben Lee’s legacy in Australian music is uniquely captured by two tracks that both fell just shy of the top spot in their Hottest 100 years: “Cigarettes Will Kill You” and “Catch My Disease.” As Triple J prepares for its Hottest 100 countdown, the relative ranking of these two fan-favorites has become a subject of analysis. BEO Betting Odds have weighed in, offering a statistical prediction on which anthem will resonate more deeply with voters canvassing the entirety of Australia’s musical past.
BEO Betting Odds Point to “Cigarettes Will Kill You” as the Frontrunner
According to BEO Betting Odds, “Cigarettes Will Kill You” is the clear favorite to place higher in the all-time Australian countdown. The odds are set at 1.5, which translates to a 66.67% probability that this 1998 hit will outperform its successor. Originally placing second in the 1998 Triple J Hottest 100, “Cigarettes Will Kill You” is a track from Lee’s third album, Breathing Tornados. The song’s enduring appeal lies in its catchy piano hook and its metaphorical lyrics, which use smoking as a stand-in for a toxic relationship. Lee himself has explained that the title was inspired by the directness of The Verve’s “The Drugs Don’t Work.” Its simple yet profound message, coupled with a memorable melody, has solidified its place as a quintessential ’90s Australian indie anthem, a factor that could heavily influence voters looking back at the landscape of Australian music.
LEADERBOARD
Triple J Hottest 100 (2025): Which Ben Lee Song Will Be Rated Higher?
| # | Bet Options | Chance to Win | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Projected Winner Ben Lee - Cigarettes Will Kill You - Yes | 32.52% | ||
| Implied Projected Winner Ben Lee - Catch My Disease - Yes | 20.99% | ||
| Implied Projected Winner Ben Lee - We're All In This Together - Yes | 6.57% |
Runner-Up: “Catch My Disease” Remains a Strong Contender
While the odds favor his earlier work, Ben Lee’s 2005 hit “Catch My Disease” is positioned as the runner-up in this friendly rivalry. From the album Awake Is the New Sleep, this track also achieved the number two spot in its respective Hottest 100 countdown. “Catch My Disease” marked a significant moment in Lee’s career, earning him ARIA awards for Best Male Artist, Best Independent Release, and Single of the Year. Co-written with McGowan Southworth, the song’s upbeat, campfire-singalong feel presents a stark contrast to the melancholic undertones of “Cigarettes Will Kill You,” offering voters a different flavor of Lee’s songwriting prowess.
Expert Predictions: A Matter of Speculation
Currently, formal expert predictions on this specific Ben Lee face-off are yet to be published. However, the nature of this special “all-time” poll invites speculation. Music journalists and long-time Triple J listeners might argue that “Cigarettes Will Kill You” has the advantage of being a foundational track in the ’90s Australian indie scene, a period often romanticized by dedicated music fans. Its placement at #2 in 1998, a year many consider a golden era for the Hottest 100, gives it a historical weight that could sway voters. Conversely, others might predict that the broader commercial success and uplifting nature of “Catch My Disease” could give it an edge. Its association with major awards and international exposure might have embedded it more firmly in the memory of a wider demographic of voters who came of age in the mid-2000s.
Final Thoughts: A Nostalgic Win for “Cigarettes”?
While both songs are landmark achievements in Ben Lee’s extensive career, the BEO Betting Odds point towards a victory for the wry, introspective charm of “Cigarettes Will Kill You.” While “Catch My Disease” brought Lee widespread acclaim and joy, the raw, relatable sentiment of his earlier hit may ultimately prove to be the more enduring entry in the hearts of Triple J listeners.
