Oscars 2026: Is Hamnet Likely to Receive a Best Picture Nomination?
Oscars 2026: Is Hamnet Likely to Receive a Best Picture Nomination?
The Academy Awards, often referred to as the Oscars, have presented the Best Picture award since the ceremony was first held in 1927.
Despite experiencing various name changes over the years, such as Outstanding Production or Best Motion Picture, it is viewed as the highest honor at the annual award show.
While Hamnet has yet to be released, Oscar buzz is building for the movie, as its November 27, 2025, release date places it firmly in the award season window.
Read on to learn if Hamnet is likely to receive a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars 2026.
The trajectory of the odds for this BEO bet indicates it is most probable Avatar: Fire and Ash will receive a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars 2026 ::: Discover the latest Bet Entertainment Odds predictions for this market.
Hamnet May Tick Every Box for a Nomination
LEADERBOARD
Oscars 2026: Early Best Picture Contenders to Watch
| # | Bet Options | Chance to Win | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Projected Winner Avatar: Fire and Ash - Yes | 37.71% | ||
| Implied Projected Winner Wicked: For Good - Yes | 35.96% | ||
| Implied Projected Winner Sinners - Yes | 34.84% |
Hamnet seemingly ticks many boxes for a Best Picture nomination. After all, it was directed by Chloe Zhao, who has picked up the Academy Awards for Best Picture and Best Director for Nomadland (2020).
Also, the screenplay is based on Maggie O’Farrell’s critically acclaimed 2020 novel of the same name, which is a New York Times bestseller and the recipient of the Women’s Prize for Fiction.
Not to mention, Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), and Emily Watson (Breaking the Waves) are Oscar nominees, meaning the cast could prove popular with the Academy.
What’s more, it features many talented cast members, such as Joe Alwyn (The Favorite) and David Wilmot (Anna Karenina), who are likely to deliver outstanding performances.
As the Academy typically favors historical dramas, the film about the life of William Shakespeare could result in the members voting in its favor ahead of the 2026 ceremony.
Tough Competition from Other 2025 Films
While Hamnet may have all the makings of a Best Picture nominee, it could face tough competition in the category from other 2025 releases.
As of July 2025, Avatar: Fire and Ash is the strongest contender for a nod, as the first two films from the Avatar franchise received nominations in the category.
Based on this rationale, Wicked: For Good could almost be a shoo-in for a nomination, as the first film Wicked received a Best Picture nod in 2025.
Also, buzz is building for upcoming releases, such as One Battle After Another, Sinners, and After the Hunt, due to the films’ cast, storytelling, and direction.
Critic Reviews Will Shape Hamnet’s Success
As many films are generating much Oscar hype before the award season has started, Hamnet will need to earn many glowing reviews from top critics to become a solid Best Picture contender.
The November release date shows confidence in the film, placing it in the running for the prestigious accolade.
If the film picks up an accolade or two at various film festivals, such as the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival, it could strengthen its chances of receiving a Best Picture nomination and potentially take home the statuette.
However, it hasn’t been announced if the film will appear at one of the upcoming festivals scheduled for 2025.
Unfortunately, you’ll need to wait until Thursday, January 22, 2026, to find out the films that have received a Best Picture nomination at the 98th Academy Awards. The winner will be announced at the annual ceremony, which is scheduled to be held on Sunday, March 15, 2026.
