Emmy 2025 Odds for Scripted Variety Series

The 2025 Primetime Emmy Awards race for Outstanding Scripted Variety Series appears to be one of the most predictable, with industry consensus and betting odds heavily favoring a returning champion.  As the television academy gears up for its 77th annual ceremony, data and expert analysis point to a near-certain victory for HBO’s satirical news program, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver.  The show’s consistent quality and previous accolades position it as the main contender in a category with limited contenders.

Betting Odds Point to John Oliver as the Overwhelming Frontrunner

According to the latest figures, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver is on a clear path to clinch another Emmy, with commanding odds of 1.17.  This translates to a staggering 85.47% probability of winning the award.  The series, which has amassed numerous Emmy wins over its run, continues to be a critical and audience favorite for its in-depth, humorous explorations of complex global and domestic issues.  The betting market reflects the show’s established dominance in this category, making it the safest bet for the upcoming awards.

Analysis from various entertainment experts solidifies this prediction.  Pundits have unanimously placed Last Week Tonight as their top pick to win.  The consensus is largely driven by the show’s consistent quality and the unique structure of the category’s nomination process.  Due to a low number of submissions, a show must achieve a high approval vote from the peer group to secure a nomination.  This rule has resulted in the category often featuring only two nominees, a trend that is expected to continue.

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Runner-Up: Saturday Night Live Remains a Formidable Contender

While John Oliver’s program seems unbeatable, the perennial runner-up, NBC’s Saturday Night Live, remains its sole significant competitor.  As the most-nominated show in Emmy history, SNL holds a legendary status and a dedicated voter base within the Television Academy.  The iconic sketch show, now in its 50th season, continues to be a cultural touchstone, a fact underscored by its numerous nominations for its landmark season and its various 50th-anniversary specials.

Betting odds place Saturday Night Live as the clear underdog, but it is still considered the only other viable option in the race.  Expert predictions consistently list SNL as the second nominee, acknowledging its institutional importance and its ability to generate viral moments and memorable performances.

The Dark Horse: Could Fantasmas Cause a Stir?

In a category defined by its top two titans, the concept of a “dark horse” is almost theoretical.  However, if any show were to shake things up, it would be Julio Torres’s surreal HBO comedy, Fantasmas.  Some experts have flagged the series as a potential spoiler, though its chances remain slim.  The show’s unique and celebrated vision has garnered critical acclaim, but breaking into a category with such a high nomination threshold poses a substantial hurdle.  Its inclusion would be a major surprise and a testament to a passionate voting bloc.

As the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards approach, the race for Outstanding Scripted Variety Series appears to be the most straightforward of the night.  While Saturday Night Live stands as a respected and historic institution, all signs point to another victory for John Oliver and his team, solidifying their place as the modern standard-bearers for the scripted variety format.