Oscars 2026: Will Avatar: Fire and Ash Receive a Best Picture Nomination?
Oscars 2026: Will Avatar: Fire and Ash Receive a Best Picture Nomination?
The Avatar franchise may be one of the most expensive in movie history, but it is also one of the most lucrative, with the first two flicks earning a combined total of over $5.2 billion internationally.
The James Cameron saga has attracted much acclaim, with fans and critics praising its storytelling, visuals, and performances.
As a result, movie fans expect Avatar: Fire and Ash, which is scheduled for release on December 19, 2025, to follow in the footsteps of Avatar (2009) and Avatar: The Way of the Water (2022) by earning multiple nominations and accolades.
Of course, there is no bigger honor than a Best Picture nomination at the Academy Awards, and many predict the flick will receive a nod at the upcoming ceremony.
Read on to learn if Avatar: Fire and Ash is likely to receive a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars 2026.
LEADERBOARD
Oscars 2026: Early Best Picture Contenders to Watch
| # | Bet Options | Chance to Win | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Projected Winner Avatar: Fire and Ash - Yes | 37.71% | ||
| Implied Projected Winner Wicked: For Good - Yes | 36.14% | ||
| Implied Projected Winner Sinners - Yes | 34.84% |
The trajectory of the odds for this BEO bet indicates it is most probable Avatar: Fire and Ash will receive a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars 2026 ::: Discover the latest Bet Entertainment Odds predictions for this market.
The Avatar Series Has a Strong Track Record in the Category
The Avatar film series has a strong track record in the Best Picture category, suggesting Avatar: Fire and Ash stands a good chance of a nod in 2026.
For instance, Avatar received a nomination at the 82nd Academy Awards but missed out on the statuette to Kathryn Bigelow’s The Hurt Locker. However, the film picked up three Oscars for Best Cinematography, Best Visual Effects, and Best Art Direction.
Also, Avatar: The Way of the Water earned a Best Picture nomination at the 95th Academy Awards, only to lose to Everything Everywhere All At Once. However, it did take home the Oscar for Best Visual Effects.
As the first two films from the franchise have picked up the Best Picture nod, BEO betting odds suggest the film is most likely to receive a nomination at the Oscars 2026.
Tough Competition in 2025
As Avatar: Fire and Ash hasn’t been released yet, it is difficult to predict if it will earn a Best Picture nomination.
Also, the flick will go up against some major releases this year, which could stand in the film’s way in the category.
For instance, Wicked: For Good is expected to receive a nomination, as Part One earned a nod in the category in 2025.
Sinners earned much critical acclaim following its release in April 2025, too, with many praising its story, performances, direction, and cinematography, ticking every box for a Best Picture nomination.
Many other releases are expected to wow audiences and critics following their release this year, including After the Hunt, One Battle After Another, and Marty Supreme, to name a few.
Critical Acclaim Will Determine Its Success
Avatar: Fire and Ash’s critical success will determine if the flick is a shoo-in for a Best Picture nomination or loses out to another film.
If the third installment can continue to combine an emotional story with striking visuals, it might be a no-brainer for the Academy to vote in its favor.
Also, the film has reportedly received positive early screenings, suggesting fans are in for a treat this Christmas.
Director James Cameron recently stated he believes it could be “the best of the three so far.” If he’s correct, it wouldn’t be a shock if it’s announced in the category next year.
