2026 Oscars Special Bets: Will The Smashing Machine Be Nominated for Best Picture?
2026 Oscars Special Bets: Will The Smashing Machine Be Nominated for Best Picture?
The anticipation for the 98th Academy Awards in 2026 is already beginning to simmer, with film enthusiasts and industry insiders speculating on which cinematic achievements will capture the attention of the Academy. Among the early whispers is Benny Safdie’s upcoming A24 drama, “The Smashing Machine,” starring Dwayne Johnson in a transformative role as MMA legend Mark Kerr. While the film’s release is still on the horizon, BEO Betting Odds are providing an initial glimpse into its potential standing in the prestigious Best Picture category, and the early figures suggest a challenging path to nomination.
BEO Betting Odds Indicate “No Nomination” as the Likely Scenario
Currently, BEO Betting Odds paint a clear picture regarding “The Smashing Machine’s” prospects for a Best Picture nod. The odds are heavily skewed towards the film not receiving a nomination, standing at 1.36. This translates to a compelling 73.53% probability, according to BEO Betting Odds data, that “The Smashing Machine” will not be among the select few contenders for the Academy’s top prize.
LEADERBOARD
Academy Awards. 2026. Odds and Predictions!
| # | Bet Options | Chance to Win | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Projected Winner The Smashing Machine to Be Nominated For Best Picture - No | 73.53% | ||
| Implied Projected Winner Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson to be Nominated for Best Actor - Yes | 63.69% | ||
| Implied Projected Winner Emily Blunt to be Nominated for Best Actress OR Best Supporting Actress - Yes | 59.88% |
This could be due to a variety of factors. Sports biopics, while occasionally successful (like “Rocky” or “Million Dollar Baby”), often face an uphill battle for Best Picture unless they transcend the genre conventions and achieve widespread critical acclaim. Furthermore, with Dwayne Johnson stepping into a deeply dramatic role, departing from his action-comedy persona, there might be initial skepticism until his performance is seen and evaluated.
For the latest odds breakdown, visit betentodds.com.
Runner-Up: “Yes, It Will Be Nominated” – A Path Less Probable?
The alternative betting option, that “The Smashing Machine” will indeed secure a Best Picture nomination, is naturally positioned as the runner-up. Based on the probability of a “No” vote, the implied likelihood of a “Yes” nomination currently hovers around 26.47%. This suggests that while not considered the most probable outcome by BEO Betting Odds, a nomination is not entirely off the table. For bettors looking at this possibility, the odds would be correspondingly longer, reflecting a potentially higher return if the film defies these initial projections.
Expert Opinions and the Pivotal Role of Forthcoming Reviews
As of now, specific expert predictions from seasoned Oscar prognosticators regarding “The Smashing Machine’s” Best Picture chances are sparse. This is typical for films that are yet to be widely screened or are still in the latter stages of production or post-production. The true litmus test will come with the first wave of critical reviews. These initial reactions from respected film critics will begin to shape the discourse around the film and heavily influence subsequent expert opinions and betting odds.
Should reviews praise Safdie’s direction, the screenplay’s depth, Johnson’s performance, and the film’s overall artistic merit, “The Smashing Machine” could quickly gain momentum. Conversely, mixed or negative reviews could solidify the current BEO Betting Odds leaning against a nomination.
Final Thoughts: An Uphill Climb, But the Bell Hasn’t Rung
While the current BEO Betting Odds suggest that “The Smashing Machine” faces a significant challenge in securing a Best Picture nomination for the 2026 Oscars, it’s essential to remember that the awards landscape is incredibly dynamic. Films can rise from obscurity or fade from early contention based on a multitude of factors that unfold over many months. The journey of “The Smashing Machine” is just beginning. Its actual theatrical release, the all-important critical reception, audience reactions, and the effectiveness of A24’s awards strategy will ultimately determine its fate.
