78th Tony Awards Predictions: Who Will Win Best Play?
78th Tony Awards Predictions: Who Will Win Best Play?
As the curtain rises on anticipation for the 78th Annual Tony Awards, set to grace Radio City Music Hall on June 8, 2025, the spotlight intensifies on one of Broadway’s most esteemed honors: Best Play. This season boasts a vibrant array of new works that have captivated audiences and critics alike. While the official nominations won’t be announced until May 1st, early indicators, particularly from BEO Betting Odds, suggest a strong frontrunner is already emerging from the pack.
BEO Betting Odds Point to Oh, Mary! as the Decisive Frontrunner
According to the latest figures from BEO Betting Odds, Oh, Mary! is overwhelmingly favored to take home the Tony Award for Best Play. With commanding odds of 1.2, translating to a remarkable 83.33% probability, the play has established a significant lead in the prediction markets. Written by and originally starring Cole Escola (who is eligible for Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play), this absurdist comedy reimagines the life of Mary Todd Lincoln in the weeks preceding her husband’s assassination.
LEADERBOARD
78th Tony Awards Predictions: Who Will Win Best Play?
| # | Bet Options | Chance to Win | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Projected Winner Oh, Mary! Wins - Yes | 40.85% | ||
| Implied Projected Winner The Hills of California Wins - Yes | 7.65% | ||
| Implied Projected Winner English Wins - Yes | 5.47% |
Oh, Mary! has been more than just a critical darling; it’s become a certified Broadway phenomenon. Since transferring from a lauded Off-Broadway run where it collected numerous awards, the play has consistently played to packed houses. It made history at the Lyceum Theatre as the first show to gross over $1 million in a single week, a record it subsequently broke 11 times. This combination of critical acclaim, audience adoration, and impressive box office performance solidifies its position as the most probable winner, according to BEO Betting Odds analysis.
For the latest odds and detailed breakdowns, theatre enthusiasts and bettors can visit betentodds.com.
Runner-Up: The Hills of California Remains a Strong Contender
While Oh, Mary! enjoys a commanding lead, BEO Betting Odds identifies The Hills of California as its closest competitor. Penned by acclaimed playwright Jez Butterworth (The Ferryman) and directed by Sam Mendes, this drama delves into family secrets and buried memories as sisters reunite in their dilapidated childhood home in 1970s Blackpool during a sweltering summer.
Having transferred from a successful West End run where it was nominated for the Olivier Award for Best New Play, The Hills of California brings significant pedigree to the Broadway stage. Featuring powerful performances, including Olivier winner Laura Donnelly (eligible for Best Actress in a Leading Role), the play offers a stark contrast to the comedic flair of Oh, Mary!. Although currently positioned as the runner-up by BEO Betting Odds, its dramatic weight and critical recognition make it a formidable contender capable of challenging the frontrunner.
Expert Predictions Align with Betting Odds
Current industry buzz largely aligns with the predictions suggested by BEO Betting Odds. Experts and commentators frequently cite Oh, Mary! as the likely winner, pointing to its unique blend of humor, originality, and overwhelming audience response. Reddit forums discussing Tony predictions also frequently list Oh, Mary! as the top pick for Best Play. While some pundits might champion the dramatic heft of The Hills of California or the timeliness of other contenders, the consensus seems to lean heavily towards Escola’s comedic creation.
Final Thoughts: A Win for Oh, Mary!?
Bolstered by exceptional BEO Betting Odds, rave reviews, record-breaking box office success, and strong expert consensus, Oh Mary! seems poised for victory. However, with nominations still to be announced and the awards ceremony over a month away, the race isn’t officially over. The Hills of California remains a credible challenger, and the depth of talent in the eligible field means surprises are always possible.
